Watch on Youtube

Clarity Act, Jane Street & The Retail Trap: Is Crypto Ready to Rebound?

Executive Summary

• Retail Optimism Returned: Despite Bitcoin sliding to $65.5k, crowd sentiment returned to net positive. Last week’s despair could have marked a bottom, though the market is waiting for key events to unfold.
  • The Clarity Act Catalyst: All eyes are on the March 1st deadline for the Clarity Act. While Jane Street dominated the headlines this week, this legislative decision is likely to impact the market direction.
  • Whales Aren't Buying Yet: A concerning divergence has opened up where retail traders are aggressively buying dips while whales and sharks remain hesitant, providing little support for a sustainable rally.

Introduction

As February 2026 comes to a close, the crypto market finds itself hopeful yet again. Bitcoin bounced up to about 69.9k on “good” news then retraced back to the $65k level, yet the usual panic is missing. Instead, the market reanimated with "buy the dip" optimism—often a contrarian signal that the correction isn't over. With the Jane Street saga encouraging optimism and the Clarity Act deadline looming, Santiment analysts break down the on-chain data to see if the market is ready for a reversal or if more pain is likely

00:00 - Intro: Bitcoin Slides to $65.5k & Jane Street Fallout

Bitcoin nearly reclaimed $70k earlier in the week following the explosive news regarding Jane Street but has since settled back down to the$65.5k range. The market is experiencing a predictable hangover after the excitement of “one less market manipulator.” While the headlines were sensational, the price action shows that the structural issues in the market go deeper than just one entity's alleged manipulation.

• Key Data: Bitcoin price at ~$65.5k; Ethereum in low$1900s.
  • Actionable Tip: Don't chase news-driven pumps; wait for the initial volatility to settle before entering positions.

via Jane Street Press Kit

02:22 - Why You Shouldn't Blame One Entity for the Crash

While the Jane Street lawsuit provided a convenient villain for the recent 30-50% market cap drop, the Santiment team warns against pinning the entire bear trend on a single actor. The current lows are also driven by a lack of whale participation. A true bottom forms when market structure heals, yes, but also when there’s follow-through from large investors.

• Key Data: Bitcoin down ~40-50% from the $126k October 2025 All-Time High.
  • Actionable Tip: Focus on whale wallet tracking rather than sensational news headlines to understand true market direction.

05:41 - Sector Analysis: Meme Coins Get Slaughtered

The rotation out of speculative assets is accelerating. Meme coins have been hit hardest, dropping nearly 9% in the last week alone, while privacy coins like Zcash continue to retrace from their late 2025 highs. Interestingly, Polkadot (+16%) and Uniswap (+11%) are showing strength, indicating a potential flight to utility projects over speculative plays

• Key Data: Meme coin sector down nearly 9%; Polkadot up 16% (screener).
  • Actionable Tip: Avoid catching falling knives in the meme sector until Bitcoin stabilizes.

07:11 - The Clarity Act Deadline & March 1st Volatility

The Jane Street narrative is fading, and the market's focus is shifting to the Clarity Act. The White House's self-imposed deadline is March 1st. This Sunday deadline is expected to trigger significant volatility, especially from institutional players who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for regulatory transparency.

• Key Data: March 1st deadline for Clarity Act advancement.
  • Actionable Tip: Expect low volume until Sunday, then watch for a sharp move as the legislative decision is announced.

via https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery

11:02 - Sentiment Alert: Crowd Optimism is a Warning Sign

Despite price drops, Bitcoin sentiment is surprisingly positive. Traders view the drop to $65.5k as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to panic. The Santiment team notes that when the crowd is this eager to buy the dip, prices rarely bounce immediately. A washout of this optimism is highly probable before a true reversal can occur.

• Key Data: Solana sentiment hit a 3-week low; Bitcoin sentiment remains positive(chart).
  • Actionable Tip: Be cautious when your social feed is full of "buy the dip" calls; wait for fear to return.

13:15 - Whale vs. Retail: The Accumulation Gap Widens

Retail traders (10-10k USD wallets) are buying every dip aggressively, while key stakeholders (whales and sharks) are only showing minor accumulation. Wallets holding 10-10k BTC added about 15,000 coins recently, but this pales in comparison to the relentless buying from retail. For a sustainable rally, "smart money" should lead the charge, not follow it.

• Key Data: 10-10k BTC wallets added ~15,411 BTC in 3 days(chart).
  • Actionable Tip: Wait for the whale accumulation trend line to spike sharply before assuming the bottom is in.

via Santiment app

15:08 - ETF Flows: Record Volume & Warning Signs

Bitcoin ETFs saw a record-breaking $23.1 billion in volume recently, driven by the volatile news cycle. However, the team notes three straight days of inflows. Contrary to popular belief, heavy inflows during a downtrend can be a warning sign of retail FOMO, whereas outflows often signal capitulation and a nearing bottom.

• Key Data: Record $23.1 Billion daily volume for Bitcoin ETFs(charts).
  • Actionable Tip: Watch for ETF outflows as a potential signal of capitulation and a relief rally setup.

19:13 - Trending Stories: Inside the "Jelly Bean Rally"

Social metrics are picking up strange micro-trends, including a "Jelly Bean Rally" related to an obscure altcoin, alongside serious macro discussions about US PPI inflation data. These distractions often occur when the market lacks a unified direction. The "Magic Eden shift" is also capturing attention in the NFT space.

• Key Data: PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month.
  • Actionable Tip: Use our trending stories tool to identify where retail attention is drifting, but stay focused on macro data for major moves.

21:18 - Alpha Narratives: War Fears & Stablecoin Growth

The Alpha Narratives dashboard highlights rising fears regarding an Iran war threat, reminiscent of the geopolitical impact seen in 2022. On a positive note, discussions around stablecoins as essential payments infrastructure are spiking, signaling a shift in narrative from pure speculation to utility.

• Key Data: Social volume related to Iran is rising.
  • Actionable Tip: Monitor "War" related keywords using the My Narratives tool; sudden spikes here often correlate with short-term panic selling.

via Santiment app

24:21 - On-Chain Signal: Transaction Volume at 6-Month Lows

Bitcoin's on-chain utility is drying up. Transaction volume has hit six-month lows, hovering around $20 billion per day. Additionally, daily active addresses are declining. This stagnation suggests that there is no rush of new utility or network usage to support a growth narrative.

• Key Data: Daily Transaction Volume at ~$20 Billion, a 6-month low(chart).
  • Actionable Tip: Look for a divergence where price stays flat but Daily Active Addresses rise—that is a bullish signal.

25:50 - MVRV Analysis: Why We Are in a Buy Zone

The 365-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is sitting at -32%. This is a historically low level, comparable to the bottoms of 2022. This indicates that average traders are deep underwater, which typically limits further downside pressure as sellers refuse to realize such heavy losses.

• Key Data: 365-day MVRV at -32%; 30-day MVRV at -6%.
  • Actionable Tip: Long-term accumulation is statistically safer when MVRV is below -15%.

via Santiment app

28:56 - Network Realized Losses & Capitulation Signs

There is an increase in network realized losses, meaning traders are moving coins at prices lower than they acquired them. This "capitulation" is healthy for market structure. It transfers coins from weak hands to potentially stronger holders.

• Key Data: Funding rates on Binance are negative, ie shorting is dominant(charts).
  • Actionable Tip: High realized losses combined with negative funding rates often precede a "short squeeze" rally.

30:53 - Wallet Growth: 58.4 Million Holders Despite the Dip

Despite the bearish price action, the total number of non-empty Bitcoin wallets has reached an all-time high of 58.4 million. This confirms that retail interest hasn't died; users are still onboarding and holding small amounts, even if the whales are currently dormant.

• Key Data: 58.4 Million Total Non-Empty Bitcoin Wallets, an all-time high(chart).
  • Actionable Tip: View long-term holder growth as a fundamental strength, even if short-term price action is weak.

Conclusion

The market is currently in a "wait and see" mode, sandwiched between the Jane Street fallout and the upcoming Clarity Act decision. While on-chain metrics like MVRV suggest we are in a mathematical buy zone, the lack of whale participation and excessive retail optimism warrants caution. Keep a close eye on the March 1st deadline—it could be the spark that finally wakes the whales.

---

Không phải lời khuyên tài chính. DYOR.