Bitcoin surged toward $69,000 after a flush; Glassnode notes one level decides if it fades
#Analysis
Bitcoin bounced back toward $69,000 on Feb. 25 after an intraday flush printed lows in the low-$60,000s across multiple venues, liquidating nearly $500 million in short positions. The move keeps price inside the $60,000-$69,000 range that has defined February trading, according to Glassnode. Yet, it does not resolve the structural weakness that has characterized the market since its 47% drawdown from all-time highs. We see this as a risk-on rebound and a positioning reset.
Bitcoin bounced back toward $69,000 on Feb. 25 after an intraday flush printed lows in the low-$60,000s across multiple venues, liquidating nearly $500 million in short positions. The move keeps price inside the $60,000-$69,000 range that has defined February trading, according to Glassnode. Yet, it does not resolve the structural weakness that has characterized the market since its 47% drawdown from all-time highs. The bounce looks less like a macro breakout and more like a risk-on rebound combined with a flow and positioning reset after capitulation. Three mechanics explain the move. Three drivers behind the rally Cross-market risk appetite returned. Global equities rallied on Feb. 25, led by technology stocks ahead of Nvidia's earnings. Bitcoin traded in line with other high-beta assets as risk appetite improved. Spot BTC ETF flows flipped positive. US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed net inflows of $257.7 million on Feb. 24. This marked a reversal from the prior day's $203.8 million outflow. However, the movement does not erase the broader outflow trend. Glassnode flags ETF flows as negative year-to-date, but it also points to a plausible marginal buyer capable of powering a sharp bounce after a flush move. Positioning and options hedging are normalized. Glassnode flags that perpetual futures funding rates normalized toward neutral, indicating leverage has reset. Options markets spiked in short-dated volatility as Bitcoin approached $62,000, then compressed again as price reclaimed the mid-$60,000s. This behavior suggests panic hedging.
