예측시장과 블록체인
블록체인과 시장이라는 단어를 함께 접하면, 아마도 중앙화된 가상자산 거래소나 밈 코인 거래를 떠올리실 겁니다. 하지만 블록체인은 단순히 돈을 위한 시장뿐만 아니라 다양한 유형의 시장을 구축할 수 있는 유연한 도구입니다. 이 글에서는 블록체인이 완전히 바꿔 놓은 특정 분야, 바로 예측 시
Prediction markets have grown beyond small-scale experiments to become mature financial tools processing billions of dollars every week. They rely on blockchain oracle systems for fair operation and have recently started using AI agents to improve results. Thanks to Layer 2 blockchain technology, transactions are now instant and inexpensive. These agents verify real-world outcomes quickly and accurately. No single company controls this process.
Introduction
When you hear the words blockchain and market together, you probably think of centralized crypto exchanges or meme coin trading. But blockchain is not just a tool for money markets; it is a flexible infrastructure that can build many types of markets. In this article, we look at a specific area that blockchain has completely transformed: Prediction Markets.
What is a Prediction Market?
You can think of a prediction market as a place where you speculate on the outcome of future events rather than buying stocks or gold. You buy and sell contracts that pay out if a specific event occurs.
For example, instead of investing in traditional stocks, a trader can trade on questions like "Who will win the US presidential election?" or "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates soon?"
Here is how it works. Users buy 'Yes' or 'No' shares. If the prediction is correct, the value of the share usually becomes 0.
The price of these shares fluctuates based on news and public sentiment. For instance, if a politician makes a mistake during a TV debate, traders react immediately, and the price of that politician's 'Yes' shares can crash in an instant. Conversely, if a report shows inflation is falling, the price of 'Yes' shares for a rate cut might rise.
These markets are powerful because they aggregate the opinions of thousands of people. Often, these collective predictions are more accurate than traditional opinion polls or expert surveys.
You can find markets on almost any topic: politics, economics, sports, pop culture (who will be Person of the Year?), and even the weather.
Why are Prediction Markets Useful?
Prediction markets work well because participants put their own money at stake. In typical gambling, the casino always has the edge. But in prediction markets, success depends on how well you understand the real world.
Today, these markets are regarded as a reliable 'source of truth.' Major news networks like CNN, CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal regularly display prediction market odds alongside standard reporting.
This is based on the idea that the collective intelligence of the public usually knows more than a single expert. Furthermore, this concept is now receiving help from AI. AI bots—software that scans news and data—are also trading in these markets, helping to adjust prices faster than humans can.
Blockchain and Prediction Markets
Moving these markets to the blockchain has solved many persistent problems. Traditional websites relied on trust and had high operational costs. The blockchain version improves this in several ways.
- Centralized websites can be easily shut down. In contrast, decentralized platforms run on code distributed across many computers. This makes it very difficult for a malicious attacker to attack or destroy the system.
- Blockchain allows users to trade directly through smart contract code, removing the need for a broker. Thanks to Layer 2 technology, fees are very low, and trades are instant.
- Smart contracts handle payouts automatically. This prevents human error or fraud. Now, billions of dollars move through the system without a central company holding the cash.
- Technically, anyone with an internet connection can use this protocol. This encourages broader participation. However, while the code is open, actual apps may need to restrict access to comply with local regulations. Therefore, you must check the laws regarding access and use of prediction markets in your jurisdiction.
The Role of Blockchain Oracles
One of the major challenges in these markets is determining the winner. How can computer code know who won an election? This is where oracles come in. Oracles connect the blockchain to real-world data.
In 2026, oracles have become much smarter than they were a few years ago. For example, some blockchain oracles include the following features.
- Collective Voting: A network of participants reports the truth by staking money. If a disagreement occurs, a digital court made up of token holders decides by voting.
- AI Verification: AI oracles can instantly read thousands of news sites and government reports. They can settle bets in seconds without waiting for human verification.
In summary, oracles guarantee the fairness of the system. For example, if you bet on a Taylor Swift album release date, an oracle can effectively 'read' Spotify data and execute the payout automatically.
Current State
In the past, there were concerns that blockchain was too slow. That problem is now largely solved. Modern blockchains can handle thousands of transactions per second, making them as fast as major sports betting apps.
However, the legal landscape remains tricky. While some major platforms like Kalshi have won lawsuits in US courts to allow election betting, individual states are fighting back with their own bans.
In the crypto sector, explosive growth is occurring across various blockchain networks. Polymarket is well-known, but activity is surging elsewhere as well. On the BNB Chain, platforms like Prediction.Fun and Opinion Labs have helped push cumulative volume above $20 billion, showing that demand is global and not limited to a specific chain.
Integration with DeFi dApps is also happening. You can now use betting positions as collateral for loans or to hedge real-world assets (for example, betting on high inflation to balance a stock portfolio).
Conclusion
Prediction markets are no longer just fun experiments. They are effective tools for gathering reliable information across various fields. By rewarding people—and AI bots—for sharing what they know, users get a clearer picture of market sentiment and where the world is heading.
