US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Risks 30% Reduction in Single Ruling

The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve faces a potential loss of nearly 30% of its holdings in a single legal ruling. This scenario remains possible even if the government does not sell a single coin. Last year, the President signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This order directed the Treasury Department to consolidate government-held BTC into a reserve account. It also pledged that the United States would not sell those coins. However, the headline figure for the reserve may overstate the amount of BTC the government can treat as a permanent strategic asset. Data from Bitcoin Treasuries estimates the US government controls approximately 328,372 BTC. This makes it the world’s largest known state holder. At current prices, that stash is worth roughly $21.6 billion. We must identify a complication here. A large portion of the US holdings includes BTC held by the government, but not cleanly owned in the strategic sense. The executive order explicitly allows dispositions pursuant to a court order of a competent jurisdiction. It includes a specific carve-out for assets that should be returned to identifiable, verifiable victims of crime. This exception is significant. Approximately 94,643 BTC, about 30% of the government's holdings, is tied to the 2016 Bitfinex hack. If those coins are returned as restitution, the reserve number would mechanically fall to about 234,000 BTC. The reserve count is real, but the ownership question is still open. We should clarify whether the Bitfinex victims will receive restitution. This outcome will determine the final reserve size.